Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 4.017537 4.379863 4.781204 5.263019 5.831629 6.489023 7.318297e+00
2025-02-02 3.632748 4.127571 4.717014 5.486874 6.491758 7.800131 9.711488e+00
2025-02-09 3.366570 3.931199 4.637840 5.618321 7.000857 8.987480 1.231003e+01
2025-02-16 3.101518 3.688258 4.447580 5.547059 7.188567 9.738113 1.453133e+01
2025-02-23 2.902004 3.502052 4.300146 5.498000 7.378036 10.515289 1.714835e+01
2025-03-02 2.735126 3.340372 4.163733 5.437514 7.525835 11.247427 2.009247e+01
2025-03-09 2.594711 3.201226 4.042419 5.378766 7.657528 11.978265 2.355730e+01
2025-03-16 2.486959 3.097976 3.961228 5.368551 7.864852 12.915945 2.845457e+01
2025-03-23 2.419816 3.046041 3.948899 5.463997 8.276408 14.433568 3.728478e+01
2025-03-30 2.309258 2.924114 3.820876 5.351168 8.269502 14.978982 4.335467e+01
2025-04-06 2.208801 2.811113 3.698354 5.234646 8.235363 15.450479 5.024855e+01
2025-04-13 2.099156 2.679219 3.538514 5.038865 8.010260 15.347502 5.384555e+01
2025-04-20 2.061514 2.653461 3.545127 5.141433 8.439789 17.303833 8.059249e+01
2025-04-27 2.049159 2.664494 3.610393 5.357143 9.168106 20.674971 1.675379e+02
2025-05-04 2.019360 2.646847 3.627113 5.483446 9.722812 23.951046 4.641450e+02
2025-05-11 1.956102 2.574216 3.547705 5.415005 9.782430 25.324146 1.251080e+03
2025-05-18 1.901151 2.512082 3.482243 5.367873 9.889668 27.042894 1.723520e+06
2025-05-25 1.848059 2.450612 3.414434 5.309748 9.958052 28.683430 NaN
2025-06-01 1.798663 2.393016 3.350191 5.253275 10.022160 30.422085 NaN
2025-06-08 1.759875 2.350753 3.310160 5.243454 10.218963 33.232183 NaN
2025-06-15 1.739172 2.336506 3.318003 5.335199 10.739103 39.098726 NaN
2025-06-22 1.689384 2.273390 3.236301 5.226741 10.623024 40.095442 NaN
2025-06-29 1.641571 2.212071 3.155393 5.114670 10.479659 40.799980 NaN